This year, Black Friday sales matter more than ever

By Jeff Domansky, Nov 25, 2020

Retailers and other online sellers have their fingers crossed for a mega Black Friday sales launch leading into the all-important holiday shopping season. In fact, for many businesses, this is all about survival.

The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) forecasts holiday sales during November and December will increase between 3.6% and 5.2% over 2019 reaching between $755.3 billion and $766.7 billion. The numbers, which exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants, compare with a 4% increase to $729.1 billion last year and an average holiday sales increase of 3.5% over the past five years.

All well and good if you have your e-commerce act together, your multichannel sales strategy in high gear, and your supply chain and delivery partners ready to go. As we get ready for the shopping season and the most unusual Thanksgiving ever, we’ve got a roundup of e-commerce holiday sales intelligence news you can use.

NRF expects holiday sales will grow between 3.6 and 5.2 percent
With e-commerce sales up 36.7% year-over-year during the third quarter, many households are expected to depend on digital shopping to make many of their holiday purchases, just as they have for much of their everyday spending this year. The online spending includes websites operated by bricks-and-mortar retailers, which have become major players in the online market as retail channels have merged. Read more…

Shoppers to spend $38 billion online over 2020 Thanksgiving weekend, DC360 projects
US consumers are set to spend a record $38.21 billion online during the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, Digital Commerce 360 projects. This is up from $28.33 billion in 2019 and would be a huge 34.9% year-over-year jump in digital revenue for the biggest U.S. retail weekend of the year. That’s nearly double the 18.4% spike for the same period in 2019. Read more…

Consumers are still planning to spend this holiday season
The Strawhecker Group (TSG) and Electronic Transactions Association survey shows 64% plan to spend the same or more than last year. 36% are planning a more conservative holiday season and intend to spend less than in 2019. TSG data shows a 9% increase in the use of debit/credit cards since the start of the pandemic. Read more…

The 75 days of Christmas: US holiday retail sales expected to grow 2.4 according to Mastercard SpendingPulse
During this newly expanded holiday season, running from October 11 through December 24, Mastercard SpendingPulse has forecasted U.S. retail sales to grow 2.4%, excluding automotive and gas, compared to the same time period last year. Notably, overall retail sales excluding automotive and gas during that initial holiday kickoff week of October 11 grew 8.3% compared to 2019**, with e-commerce sales increasing 66.5%. Read more…

5 retail holiday predictions for 2020
2020 has been full of wild cards. In years past, forecasting for the last quarter of the season seemed, comparatively, like a much more straightforward effort. But, in a year when retailers have been trying to serve their customers, keep employees safe and still have products shipped out on time in the middle of a pandemic, it’s hard to see what’s on the immediate horizon, especially with consumer spending habits. Read more…

A holiday shopping season like no other
Consumer spending is leading the US economic recovery from the COVID-19-induced recession, with retail sales exceeding pre-pandemic levels in Q3. Nevertheless, ongoing economic headwinds and concerns over a fall/winter spike in the virus are creating an uncertain and unpredictable 2020 holiday shopping season. 2020 holiday retail sales growth is expected to be less than the 4.1% annual average since 2010, culminating in $730.2 billion in total sales last year, according to the US Census Bureau. CBRE Retail Research forecasts holiday retail sales growth of less than 2% this year, assuming there is no major resurgence of the virus or mandated store closures. Read more…

Deloitte 2020 holiday shopping sales predictions

A tale of two holiday seasons: As a K-shaped recovery model emerges, consumer spending heavily bifurcated
Holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 1% and 1.5%, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast. Overall, Deloitte’s retail and distribution team projects that holiday spending will result in sales between $1,147 billion and $1,152 billion during the November-January timeframe. Deloitte also forecasts that e-commerce sales will grow by 25% to 35%, year-over-year. Read more…

Delays, surcharges and returns: Holiday shipping headaches have just begun
In a season expected to produce more than $190 billion from online sales alone, retailers are pulling out all the stops to keep up with demand. While the influx in digital orders helped offset store sales declines, it introduced other problems, particularly around shipping delays. Even Amazon experienced disruptions that caused it to walk back its one-day delivery promise, limit its assortment and postpone its annual Prime Day event. Read more…

Ahead of Black Friday, retailers brace for online returns
Purchasing goods online carries a greater level of uncertainty for consumers than shopping in physical stores, which firms predict will result in an influx of unwanted goods. Salesforce projects some $280 billion worth of returns this holiday season, which experts have said is largely due to consumers’ inability to test out products, ask associates for help and browse products in the same way they can when shopping in-store. Read more…

Alibaba merchants sell $40b in first half-hour of Singles Day 2020, more than 2019 event full sales
According to the research data analyzed and published by Stock Apps, Alibaba’s gross merchandise value (GMV) for the 2019 event was $38 billion, nearly half the 2020 figure. Though it is typically a 24-hour event, this year it ran for two weeks, starting from November 1 all the way to the midnight of November 12. Read more…

If you’re celebrating US Thanksgiving, we hope you enjoy the holiday safely and in good health. We encourage you to wear a mask and practice social distancing whether you’re traveling, visiting, or shopping.